Birmingham City Council Members approved the adoption of Birmingham’s Development Plan on the 10 January 2017. The Development Plan seeks to provide for the delivery of 51,100 homes over the period to 2031, but it is widely acknowledged that this falls significantly short of the level of housing need which the Council identified over this same period totalling 89,000 homes.
This shortfall has yet to be met in full and we calculate that across Birmingham’s housing market area, the level of unmet housing need currently stands at in excess of 33,000 homes.
We have produced an interactive map (below), summarising the housing need and proposed supply response of each authority within the housing market, and the extent to which it contributes to meeting the shortfall in the needs of other surrounding authorities (primarily Birmingham).
Forthcoming changes to the assessment of housing need
In addition, we have also examined the implications to the objectively assessed housing need of the Birmingham housing market if the methodology proposed by the Local Plans Expert Group is adopted by Government. However, we await the findings of the Government’s Housing White Paper which may shed further light on this. The LPEG approach would increase the housing need of the Birmingham HMA by a further 10,000 homes over the period to 2031, worsening the shortfall in provision by the same amount.
Economic Growth aims
Furthermore, examination of the West Midlands Combined Authority Strategic Economic Plan identifies a series of economic growth scenarios which will require growth in the available labour force of the Greater Birmingham and Solihull Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP), which significantly exceed that allowed for in the housing need figures above.
In order to facilitate the strategic economic growth aims of the West Midlands Combined Authority it will be necessary to plan for a far higher level, which in turn will increase the shortfall in the number of homes currently planned to between 49,000 and 94,000.
In short there is a significant and potentially increasing divide between the number of homes required across the Greater Birmingham area, and that which is currently planned. This is likely to manifest itself in increasing issues associated with affordability, and a person’s ability to form their own household, but will also have an impact on social mobility and will place limitations on the economic growth potential of the region.
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