News: 12 July 2016DCLG release new Household Projections

The 2014-based household projections for England were published by the Department for Communities and Local Government today (12 July 2016). Replacing the 2012 figures, these project the number of households in England and each local authority district over the 25-year period 2014 to 2039, providing an updated ‘starting point estimate’ for determining objectively assessed housing need in English local authorities as part of the planning process.

The 2014-based series project an increase of 5.26 million households in England over the 25-year period, which is equivalent to an additional 210,300 households per annum.  This compares to growth of 5.24 million households (209,700 per annum) projected by the 2012-based series.  By 2035 the 2014-based series project there to be 27.3 million households in England – 99,000 more than projected by the 2012-based series.

The 2014-based household projections indicate a need for more housing in England than previously projected. However, the picture across England varies, at a regional level, the 2014-based household projections indicate higher absolute need in London, East Midlands, West Midlands and the South West. All other regions are projected to see a lower absolute increase in household growth according to the 2014-based projections.  In percentage terms, all regions except London are projected to see lower growth according to the 2014-based projections compared to the previous 2012-based series.

Nearly all 326 English local authorities (with the exception of Barrow-in-Furness and Isles of Scilly) are projected to see absolute growth in the number of households. However, housing need is projected to be higher by 2035 in just 160 local authorities (49%). Our interactive map (below) presents the scale of the difference for each individual authority – those authorities coloured blue are projected to see lower household growth and those authorities coloured yellow/ orange are projected to see higher projected household growth in the 2014-based series compared to the 2012-based series.




Please see our guidance note from our Research Team for our full analysis.

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Development Economics, household projections, housing need, OAN, Standard Method